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Farmers remain hopeful that pepper prices will continue to rise.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, Vietnam exported 22,000 tonnes of pepper in July 2025, generating USD 143 million in revenue. This brought the total export volume in the first seven months of the year to 145,300 tonnes, worth USD 991.1 million. While volume dropped 11.6% compared to the same period in 2024, export value increased by 29.9%.

The average export price for the first seven months of 2025 reached USD 6,823.2 per tonne, up 46.9% year-on-year.

Pepper Prices on the Rise Again

The United States, Germany, and India remained the top three export markets, accounting for 26%, 8.9%, and 7.3% of Vietnam’s pepper exports, respectively. Compared to the same period last year, export value to the U.S. rose by 28.4%, Germany by 56.7%, and India by 76.5%.

Among the top 15 export destinations, the UK recorded the sharpest growth with a 2.1-fold increase in value, while the United Arab Emirates saw the steepest decline, down 18.1% year-on-year.

Latest data from the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA) shows that in the first half of August 2025, Vietnamese companies exported 10,830 tonnes of pepper, earning USD 71.8 million. Compared to July, export volume slightly dropped by 0.2%, but value increased by 2.1%, driven by higher export prices.

In the same period, Simexco Dak Lak unexpectedly led exporters with 1,076 tonnes shipped, accounting for nearly 10% of market share. Following were Olam Vietnam (1,002 tonnes), Nedspice Vietnam (833 tonnes), Haprosimex JSC (803 tonnes), and Phuc Sinh (611 tonnes). As of mid-August, Vietnam’s pepper exports have surpassed USD 1 billion, nearing the USD 1.1 billion mark.

In 2024, Vietnam set a record with pepper export earnings reaching USD 1.32 billion, based on 250,600 tonnes exported. The average price for black pepper was USD 6,476 per tonne, while white pepper averaged USD 8,198 per tonne.

According to the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA), despite a 20% tariff recently imposed by the United States—double the previous rate—pepper prices have rebounded and remain at a high level. On August 21, 2025, agricultural dealers in Gia Lai quoted pepper prices at around VND 148,000 per kilogram, up VND 3,000–5,000 compared to early August.

However, VPSA noted that this price is still far below early-2025 forecasts, which anticipated prices could reach VND 180,000–200,000 per kilogram amid expectations of supply shortages.

In late Q1 2025, many dealers stockpiled pepper at VND 150,000–160,000 per kilogram. But after the U.S. unexpectedly imposed a 10% tariff in April, prices plummeted, dropping to as low as VND 120,000 per kilogram. While prices have since recovered to nearly VND 150,000, many dealers have yet to break even.

With over 90% of its pepper production exported, Vietnam’s pepper industry is highly vulnerable to global market fluctuations. Exporters have faced mounting difficulties in major markets: the U.S. has tightened tariffs, while the EU has revised certification regulations. VPSA has repeatedly called for policy support to ease these challenges.

Vietnam Holds Competitive Edge Over Brazil, India

VPSA reported that Vietnam’s 2025 pepper harvest has concluded, with an estimated output of 180,000 tonnes—down 10,000 tonnes from 2024. The decline is largely due to the lack of expansion in cultivation area.

A sharp reduction in U.S. imports of Vietnamese pepper is a key factor behind the export volume drop. Data from the International Trade Centre (ITC) shows that in the first five months of 2025, the U.S. imported over 36,000 tonnes of pepper worth USD 273 million—down 3.3% in volume. Imports from Vietnam fell by 18% year-on-year. Vietnam, Indonesia, India, Brazil, and China remained the top pepper suppliers to the U.S.

Vietnam Customs data reveals that in the first seven months of 2025, pepper exports to the U.S. fell 24% year-on-year to nearly 33,000 tonnes. However, due to higher prices, export value surged 21% to USD 248 million.

Despite losing volume share, Vietnam remains the largest pepper supplier to the U.S. market, accounting for 64.4% of total U.S. imports.

VPSA Secretary General Lê Việt Anh stated that the 20% retaliatory tariff imposed by the U.S. does not pose a serious threat to Vietnam’s pepper exporters overall.

However, Phan Minh Thông, Chairman of Phuc Sinh Corporation, noted that U.S. importers are reassessing consumer demand in light of rising costs, leading to slower shipment schedules.

While pepper exports to the U.S. may encounter challenges in Q3 2025 due to the new tariff, the outlook is brighter from Q4 onward. VPSA anticipates a surge in orders in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, as buyers begin building inventories ahead of peak consumption seasons.

Though Vietnam's pepper exports to the U.S. declined in the first seven months of 2025, this is seen as a temporary adjustment to new tariff policies. Vietnam’s lower tariff burden compared to competitors like Brazil and India, combined with its stable supply capacity, offers a solid basis for recovery in the latter half of the year.

“Global pepper prices are expected to rise in the second half of 2025 as demand picks up from major markets, creating favorable conditions for Vietnam’s pepper exports,” VPSA projected.

It also forecast that total export volume in 2025 will decline to around 220,000 tonnes from 250,000 tonnes in 2024. Nevertheless, with higher prices, Vietnam’s pepper export revenue could still reach USD 1.4 billion. After accounting for the U.S. tariff impact, the net value for the industry is expected to be around USD 1.3 billion—on par with last year’s record.

Source: vneconomy.vn

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