The Trade Remedies Authority under the Ministry of Industry and Trade has just announced a warning list of products at risk of being investigated for trade defense measures, origin fraud, and illegal transshipment in Vietnam’s export markets. The list includes 5 groups with 29 products considered at risk.
INCREASING PRESSURE IN THE NORTH AMERICAN MARKET
The North American market, particularly the United States and Canada, is sending strong warning signals regarding many of Vietnam’s export sectors. The shift in supply chains combined with rapid growth has inadvertently put Vietnamese products under the scrutiny of local investigating authorities.
In the U.S. market, wood and wood products are facing very high risks. A typical example is upholstered sofas with wooden frames. In 2025, Vietnam’s export value of this product to the U.S. reached USD 3.4 billion, marking an 8.8% increase compared to 2024. This figure currently accounts for 54.1% of total U.S. imports of similar products.
Although the U.S. has so far only applied trade defense measures to imports from China and has not officially launched investigations into other countries, the dominant market share and continuous growth make the risk of investigations into trade remedies or tax evasion for Vietnamese sofas very clear. Previous cases such as plywood and kitchen cabinets from Vietnam being taxed after similar warnings remain important lessons.
In addition to wood products, supporting industrial goods and materials in the U.S. are also showing unusual fluctuations. Aluminum wire and cable exports to the U.S. reached USD 65 million in 2025. Although this accounts for only 5.6% of the U.S. import market share, it represents an extraordinary growth rate of 448% compared to the previous year.
Another case is float glass, which surged from USD 2.3 million in 2024 to USD 92.2 million in 2025, accounting for 11.6% of total U.S. imports. Such rapid expansion in a short time is a key trigger for U.S. authorities to consider protective measures for domestic production.
Not only the U.S., but Canada is also tightening controls. Upholstered seat exports to Canada reached USD 180.4 million in 2025, up 44.1%. Notably, Vietnam, along with China, is already subject to anti-dumping and countervailing duties in this market. As Vietnam maintains its position as the third-largest supplier and continues increasing output, businesses need to be prepared for expanded investigations.
Other products such as carbon welded steel pipes, aluminum extrusions, and copper pipes exported to Canada are also on the watch list due to their rapid growth and important roles in the country’s supply chain.
STRICT TECHNICAL BARRIERS IN THE EU MARKET
The EU is known for its stringent standards, and in 2025 it continues to strengthen trade defense instruments against various industrial and steel products from Vietnam.
Steel and steel-related products are the focus in the EU market. Vietnam’s exports of cold-rolled flat steel to the EU reached USD 167.6 million in 2025, up 39.2%. Although the current share is only 8.7%, this rapid growth puts Vietnam’s steel industry at risk of anti-dumping investigations if the trend continues.
Similarly, organic-coated steel and cold-rolled stainless steel also recorded strong growth. Notably, cold-rolled stainless steel surged by 124.7% to USD 144.1 million. The EU has already imposed anti-dumping duties on this product for partners such as China, Taiwan, India, and Indonesia, creating a highly sensitive legal environment for Vietnamese exporters.
Beyond steel, industrial and consumer goods exported to the EU are also under scrutiny. Exports of truck and bus tires to the EU reached USD 336.5 million in 2025, up 22.3%, with Vietnam currently ranking as the third-largest supplier. Other products include steel wind towers (USD 285 million) and hand pallet trucks (USD 47.8 million).
While this creates opportunities to gain market share as major competitors like China face trade barriers, Vietnam’s rising position also increases the likelihood of becoming the next target of investigations.
A critical issue emphasized by authorities for the EU market is the origin of materials. For example, for products such as tin-coated flat steel and high-tenacity polyester yarn, domestic enterprises must avoid using key raw materials directly imported from China for processing and export. Such practices can easily trigger complex anti-circumvention investigations.
In addition to traditional markets, the early warning list also highlights risks in other potential markets such as Australia, Mexico, India, and Indonesia. This reflects the global spread of trade protectionism across various sectors.
In Australia, three steel products—hot-rolled sections, hollow structural steel, and galvanized steel—are seeing a surge in imports from Vietnam. The most concerning is hot-rolled sections, with a growth rate of 105.8%, accounting for 26.1% of Australia’s total imports.
Similarly, Mexico is closely monitoring Vietnam’s prestressed steel cables and polyester plastics, as both have experienced sharp increases in export value and now hold significant market shares ranging from 30% to over 42%.
Source: vneconomy.vn
